Thursday 09/24/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Thursday 09/24/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Jim Feist

MLB | Sep 24
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Total
9 ov+105 at 5DIMES > 1d.
Milwaukee is a good offensive park and two of the better offenses meet in this one. The Phillies are No. 1 in runs scored in the NL while the Brewers are 5th. Lefty J.A. Happ has a dynamite start to the season, but has tired out a bit after topping the 140 innings pitch mark. He is 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA his last three starts. Milwaukee starter Jeff Suppan has below average stuff and lifetime is 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA against the Phillies. Play the Phillies/Brewers over the total.
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (+138, 7.5)

While most baseball fans are fixated on the postseason races, the Seattle Mariners have quietly become one of baseball’s hottest teams.

Heading into Wednesday, the Mariners have won seven of their last 10 games and have suffered just one loss in their past six contests. During that span, Seattle pitching staff is shutting down opponent’s weapons, posting a 2.75 ERA.

Seattle had to travel all the way to Florida for two games against the Tampa Bay Rays and will now head north to face the Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Mariners scored a 4-3 win over Tampa Tuesday but manager Don Wakamatsu said his team was a little jet lagged after the cross-country trip.

"I really think the flight made some of the guys sore," Wakamatsu told the Seattle Times. "I mean that (flight) can be a tough thing to (overcome)."

The M’s have faced Toronto three times at home this season, with two of those games playing under the total. In that series, Seattle hit .305 but had just five extra-base hits and totaled just 11 runs. The under is 9-3 in their last 12 meetings.

Pick: Under


Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (-110, 8)

Oakland is trying its hardest to avoid a sub-.500 record this season.

The A’s have caught fire in the final month of the season, winning eight of their last 10 games (heading into Wednesday) to improve to 13-6 in September. Oakland claimed win No. 13 with a 9-1 beating of the Texas Rangers Tuesday night at McAfee Coliseum – giving the team its first winning month of 2009.

This current eight-game home stand is producing some big offensive numbers for the Athletics. The team is batting over .300 and averaging more than six runs per game during this span. The pitching has also been stellar, posting a 2.43 ERA over the last seven games.

"They are a pretty good young team and they finally put it together," Texas manager Ron Washington, a former A’s third base coach, told the media. "Their pitching staff is young and those kids have gotten their feet wet and they are showing their ability that they have."

As of Wednesday, Oakland has built a 10-7 record against the Rangers, taking seven of those win in the last 10 meetings.

Pick: Oakland
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

Over the past three months, Bronson Arroyo has proved to be two things: One, still an incredible pitcher. And two, a very patient man.

The Reds righty has gone just 4-5 since the All-Star break despite posting a 2.42 ERA and 11 straight quality starts. The big issue is run support, which came up again in Arroyo’s most recent trip to the bump. He went eight innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out six batters, but was let down by Cincinnati’s lineup which mustered just two runs on five hits.

Arroyo’s was gracious enough to take some of the blame after allowing two home runs but when you’re getting just 4.69 runs of support during your time on the hill, you’ve earned the right to throw your teammates under the bus.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are on a tear in September and pitching is the name of the game in the Emerald City. King Felix is leading that charge, going 5-1 in his 10 starts since August.

Hernandez has his name in Cy Young talks. He has a 1.77 ERA in the past three months and is coming off a complete-game gem against the Yankees in which he gave up one earned run on eight hits and used just 104 pitches to do so.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

Boston’s young righty is playing himself into a spot in the postseason rotation – if the Red Sox win the AL Wild Card. With a seven-game death grip on the final postseason spot, Buchholz should start booking tickets in Los Angeles for family members.

He’s 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last five starts, and is holding opponents to a .248 BA this season. His most recent performance was a six-inning, one-run show against the Orioles. He’s allowed just two runs in his last three appearances.


Slumping

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

You picked a fine time to suck Justin.

With the Minnesota Twins hot on the heels of the AL Central leaders, the Tigers ace has hit the skids at the most inconvenient time. In his last two starts, Verlander has allowed 10 earned runs on 15 hits.

In his last three starts, the once-mighty righty is 0-2 with a 4.87 ERA. He’s also allowed three home runs in this span.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

With a name like Carlos Carrasco, you can either be a major league pitcher or a character in a Grand Theft Auto video game.

After a rough start to his big league career, Carrasco might start pining for a latter.

In his first three appearances, the former Phillies prospect is 0-2 with an ERA just south of 10.00. His most recent start was a gem compared to his first two trips to the mound. Carrasco lasted six innings, giving up four runs on eight hits. He also allowed a home run, bringing his MLB total to six in just 14 innings.
 
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Rob Vinciletti

MLB | Sep 24
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners
-148 at 5DIMES > 18h.
On Thursday night the Power pitching play is on Seattle at 7:10 eastern. The Mariners have their ace going tonight. Felix Hernandez takes the mound tonight. Over his last 3 starts he has a 0.78 era allowing just 2 earned runs in 23 innings. In his road starts the Mariners are 12-5 and he has a solid 1.90 road era. He is 5-1 vs A.L. East opponents this year. Toronto counters with lefty Romero. In Romero home starts he has a 4.42 era nearly 3 runs higher than Hernanadez road starts. He has pitched much better in day games than at night this year. The Bluejays are 13-31 as a home dogs in this range and 18-34 vs winning teams in the second half. Look for Seattle to get game 1 of this series this tonight.Jump on the big college football Power play on Thursday nights card. We went 6-1 on Saturday and cashed 9 of the last 11 football selections. Take the Mariners tonight.RV.
 
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Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Thursday 9/24
Play On: Chicago Cubs w/Dempster vs Penny

Note: The Cubs open a four-game set with the Giants when they send Ryan Dempster to the hill against Brad Penny at AT&T Park tonight. Dempster enters tonight's fray with wins in four of his last six team starts and two of his last three against San Francisco. On the flip side, Penny checks in 2-6 in his last eight starts against the Cubbies, including 0-4 his last four at home. Back the steadier serves of Dempster and the Cubs here tonight.
 
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Bobby Maxwell

Hit my third straight FREE winner on Wednesday when the Tigers beat up the White Sox in Chicago. Tonight I've got another comp play from the diamond as I go with the Phillies laying a little chalk in Milwaukee.

Philadelphia went to Florida and didn't do what it was supposed to and have let the Braves and Marlins hang around in this division and wildcard chase. Atlanta is 6.5 games back while Florida is 7 back in the division.

The Phillies lost two of three to the Marlins and now head to Milwaukee to close out this nine-game road trip. The Brewers have won six of their last eight overall and two of three against Philadelphia way back in April.

My favorite Phillies' pitcher is on the hill tonight in lefty J.A. Happ (10-4, 2.77 ERA) who is an amazing 6-2 on the road with a 1.91 ERA. This kid steps up and delivers away from home and does it by going after hitters and spotting his pitches. Philadelphia has won five of his last seven starts and they've won four of his last five outings on the road.

Friday, Happ only went three innings in Atlanta, but only allowed one run in the 9-4 Phillies' win. He's never faced the Brewers but he'll be ready to dominate them.

Jeff Suppan (7-10, 4.76) is on the hill for the Brewers, who have lost seven of his last nine starts. One of the wins was on Saturday against the Astros when he allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings of the 7-2 victory. He didn't have any luck against the Phils last year, allowing 12 runs over 13.2 innings of work, and teams he's started for have dropped eight straight to Philadelphia, includig three starts with the Cardinals.

The Phils are 8-3 in their last 11 overall and they are one of the league's best road teams, going 29-14 as a road favorite. This is an easy winner with Philadelphia.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
 
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Michael Cannon

I’m now 6-1 with my last seven overall Bonus Plays after the Reds blowout win over the Pirates yesterday!

Why mess with a good thing?

Let’s take the Reds again over the Pirates this afternoon.

The Buccos are 3-22 in their last 25 games and have dropped five in a row. They haven’t even been competitive in their last three games, giving up 33 runs while scoring just 12.

The Reds will start Bronson Arroyo, who is 13-13 on the year with a 4.04 ERA. The right-hander is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 2.45 ERA. Arroyo beat the Pirates in his only start against them this year, pitching eight shutout innings and allowing only four hits.

The Pirates will counter with Charlie Morton, who is 4-8 with a 5.00 ERA on the year.

Cincinnati is finishing strong while the Pirates are losing at a historical rate.

Take the Reds as they grab the road win.
5? CINCINNATI
 
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Dominic Fazzini

The Red Sox hammered the Royals on Wednesday, just as I said they would, giving me a run-line winner on my complimentary selection. And I'm staying in the AL to pick up another run-line victory today.

Mariners ace Felix Hernandez (16-5, 2.45 ERA) is making a run for the Cy Young Award this year. While he probably will finish second to Kansas City's Zack Greinke, Hernandez is 4-0 with a 1.18 ERA in his last five outings, and has allowed two earned runs in 31 innings over his last four games.

The 23-year-old right-hander gave up two runs (one earned) and eight hits Friday in a complete-game victory over the Yankees.

Hernandez is 9-2 with a major league-best 1.90 ERA in 17 road starts this season. He is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA in five career starts vs. Toronto.

Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero (12-9, 4.28) seems to be hitting the wall in his first big-league season. He is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA in his last nine outings, and has lost two straight starts.

The left-hander actually beat Hernandez and the Mariners on July 27 despite allowing four runs and 10 hits in six innings. Romero is 8-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 home starts this season.

Hernandez has made 10 consecutive quality starts since his loss to the Blue Jays, and I expect him to continue that run as he tries to overtake Greinke in the Cy Young voters' eyes. Take the Mariners on the run line today.
3♦ SEATTLE -1 1/2 RUNS
 
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Karl Garrett

G-Man taking the road dog Cubbies this Thursday night in the City by the Bay.

Going to back the Cubs tonight at San Francisco.

Chicago will send Ryan Dempster to the mound to face Brad Penny, and Dempster is working on 16 innings of one-run ball his last pair of starts, good enough for a 1-0 mark.

Dempster also owns a win over San Francisco in his lone start against them this year, going 7 innings while allowing 2 runs to score in a May 4th victory.

The Giants are continuing to fight until the end, but Brad Penny's last start of 3 innings and 7 runs allowed to the Dodgers has me a little concerned with his psyche tonight against the Cubs, and Chicago has won 3 of their last 4.
3♦ CUBS
 
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Jeff Benton

For Thursday, I’ll play the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Indians.

Obviously, this game means a whole lot more to Detroit, which leads the Twins by 2½ games in the A.L. Central, than it does Cleveland, which is dead last in the division (yep, even behind the Royals). The Indians have dropped 10 straight games, including the first two in this series by scores of 3-1 and 11-3. Going back further, the Tribe are 1-14 in their last 15 and 3-19 in their last 22 (3-8 at home).

Included in Cleveland’s 3-19 freefall is five straight losses to these Tigers by the combined tally of 30-16 (with four of the five defeats coming by multiple runs). In fact, only four of Cleveland’s last 23 defeats have been by one run.

How does that trend not continue tonight against Verlander? Sure, the All-Star hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, but he’s still 16-9 with a 3.44 ERA. That includes 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Indians – he’s given up just one run on nine hits in 23 innings versus Cleveland with a 30-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Talk about unhittable! Even more impressive, the Indians still had guys like Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore around for those three games.

If all that isn’t enough to love Detroit in this one, this should be: The Indians are going with rookie Carlos Carrasco on the mound. All Carrasco has done in three starts is give up 16 runs (15 earned) in 14 innings (9.64 ERA), with the Indians losing all three games by scores of 7-0, 11-9 and 8-5. That latter score? Yep, it came at Detroit on Sept. 1, when the Tigers touched up Carrasco for six runs (three homers) on nine hits in three innings.

All Detroit and Verlander in this one and I’ll call for an 8-2 final.
5♦ DETROIT (-1 1/2 RUNS) ... (BASED ON A 1♦ TO 10♦ SCALE)
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline
A push on last night's Bonus Play on LA-Washington OVER the total, so the Bonus Play run is now 37-22-4 the last 63 days.

Have to play the Tigers on the RUN LINE this Thursday night, as Cleveland is just an abortion right now.

Last night's 11-3 pounding by Detroit dropped the Tribe to 0-10 their last 10 games. That's right, 10 straight losses, and we don't see a win in sight tonight, as the Tigers have absolutely owned the Indians all season long.

Detroit is 6-2 now at Progressive Field, and 13-4 overall in the season series against Cleveland.

Verlander has been hit hard his last 2 times to the bump, but in 3 starts this year against Cleveland, he is 3-0 with 1 earned run allowed in 23 innings of work.

Carlos Carrasco is 0-2 in his 3 starts at this level, and his ERA is close to 10.

No dount about it, this game looks like another 11-3 final tonight.

Take the Tigers on the RUN LINE.
2? DETROIT -1 1/2 RUNS
 
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Dave Cokin

(909) CHICAGO CUBS
(910) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take "(909) CHICAGO CUBS"

The Cubs won' be in the playoffs, but at least they're closing the season respectably. This seems to be a happier team now that perpetual pain in the butt Milton Bradley has been sent home and they've got a hot pitcher hurling here in Ryan Dempster. The Giants counter with Brad Penny, who got hit hard last time out and may be wearing down as he did earlier in Boston. I'll back the Cubs to capture the series opener.
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Thursday, September 24

Hot Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 3-2, 1.64 in his last eight starts. Morton is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Padilla is 3-0, 3.29 in five starts for the Dodgers. Nationals are 7-2 in last nine Martin starts.
-- Suppan has 2.93 RA in his last five starts.
-- Dempster is 4-1, 2.76 in his last six starts. Penny is 3-1, 4.01 in four starts for the Giants.

-- Anderson is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts. Texas won eight of last ten Feldman starts.
-- Hernandez is 4-0, 1.89 in his last five starts.
-- Buchholz is 4-0, 1.57 in his last five starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Happ is 0-2, 4.24 in his last three starts.
-- Hammel has 4.63 RA in his last 12 starts. Richard is 0-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.

-- Romero is 1-4, 6.67 in his last five starts.
-- Verlander is 0-2, 4.87 in his last three starts. Carrasco is 0-3, 13.14 in three starts.
-- Lerew was 10-6, 4.09 in 27 starts in AA Texas League.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won seven of their last nine games.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Phillies won eight of their last eleven games. Brewers won six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs won six of their last nine road games.
-- Padres are 12-6 in their last 18 road games. Colorado won four of its last six games.
-- Giants won three of their last four home games.

-- Mariners won five of their last seven games. Toronto won last three games, scoring 22 runs.
-- Tigers won their last three games, allowing six runs.
-- Royals won 12 of their last 16 games. Red Sox won 11 of their last fourteen games.
-- A's won 13 of their last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 22 of their last 25 games.
-- Nationals lost six of their last eight games.

-- Rangers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Indians lost their last ten games.

Totals
-- Eight of last twelve Cincinnati road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-3 in last fifteen Dodger road games.
-- Under is 20-9-2 in Philly's last thirty-one road games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Hammel starts.
-- 12 of last 15 Giant games went over the total.

-- Under is 5-2 in Anderson's last seven home starts.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Seattle road games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
 
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Trend Report

12:35 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

3:35 PM
TEXAS vs. OAKLAND
Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:05 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games at home

7:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. WASHINGTON
LA Dodgers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

7:07 PM
SEATTLE vs. TORONTO
Seattle is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing Seattle
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Seattle

8:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MILWAUKEE
Philadelphia is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 20 games

8:10 PM
BOSTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Kansas City is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games

8:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. COLORADO
San Diego is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games at home

10:15 PM
CHI CUBS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Chi Cubs are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
 

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Michael Cannon

BIGGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL RELEASE OF SEASON!

40 Dime
SEC
Game of the Month
Mississippi vs. South Carolina
27-11-4 Overall Run with 40 Dimers!
It's step out time and I'm coming out with a 40 dime lock on tonight's SEC clash! Ride the Money Train as I deliver winning day #5 of 7!
4 of 6 Winning Days!
+59.50 Dimes!
----------------------
42-26 with all Baseball Best Bets
rated 15 dimes or higher this season!








anyone have this?
I would split it, but lost a fair amt of cash yesterday on angels
can others pick this up today,like we unfortunately picked up Nover yesterday


 

degenerate
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anyone have this?
I would split it, but lost a fair amt of cash yesterday on angels
can others pick this up today,like we unfortunately picked up Nover yesterday


i would be interested in seeing adams/fazzini (i bought/posted yesterday and they went 3-0 combined) and/or patron. lots and lots of football picks.... pissed if everyone's on a different side and we get no consensus.

adams 1500 sec lock
fazzini 10 dime cfb
patron 10,000 cfb
 

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Greg Roberts was suppose to release a 5 star play today at 9am.
If he wins it will be 14 five star winners in a row. He got shit lucky and hit Aurburn the other night against GT.
He sucks over all but does good with the 5 stars.
 

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